Housing Bubble Watch: Housing Permits, Starts, Builder Confidence Fall
Anastacia  |  by www.mortgagenewsdaily.com. All rights reserved. 10.04 | 17:31

It's that time again. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and who make their living by building the homes.
The Census Bureau (U.

S. Department of Commerce) and the U.S.

Department of Housing and Urban Development issue a joint report on housing permits, starts, and house completions each month and, except for a few anomalies that have gotten economists all excited, these figures have been generally declining for most July was not much of an exception.
annual rate of 1,747,000 units, a 6.5 percent decline from the revised June rate of 1,869,000 and nearly 21 percent below the annualized rate of permits issued in July 2005 (2,206,000).

Permits for single family housing (1,318,000, annualized) declined by 6.1 percent below the number issued the previous month.
Housing starts declined to 1,795,000, a 2.

5 percent change 2,070,000. Single-family starts totaled 1,452,000, off 2.3 percent from revised June figures.


1,927,000 privately-owned housing units (on an annualized basis) were completed in July. This was a decline, overall, of 5.4 percent from June but, in about the only piece of good news, was actually an increase of 2.

3 percent over the same month in 2005. This, however, may be an indication of the lag time involved in construction of multi-unit dwellings. Single family homes were completed at a rate of 1,665,000, a decline of 4.

6 percent from June.
Figures for permits were down in every region, going into double digits in the West where permits for single family units were off by nearly 15 percent. a full one-third in the West.


Interestingly, the number of units for which permits had been issued but construction not yet begun actually dropped in July. 214,400 permits that had been previously this was 9.6 percent fewer than in June.


So how are builders feeling about the future? Not so good according to the August. The index just hit its lowest level since February of 1991, the seventh consecutive month in which the index has fallen.


of sales over the next six months on a scale of poor, fair, or good and then asks respondents to rate sales traffic from very low to very high. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index. Any number view sales conditions as good rather than poor.


21 respectively.
Builders in the Midwest may need to seek professional help. The total HMI index in that region fell to 15, five points lower than July.

The South and West are 42 in the West.
levels a year ago, and those levels clearly were unsustainable. We expect the in 2007.

" He also noted that builder sentiment tends to contract "by a greater margin than actual sales and production activity." Share your thoughts about the Housing Bubble with us at and watch the latest (NEW!) related to the Bubble.


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