So what went wrong for Blair? A new series blames Bernie, Ken - and even baby Leo Blair did win. Spectacularly.

His popularity was overwhelming. As No e l Coward put it after his first big hit, "I was the belle of the ball." The New Leader, the first of three programmes, covered this glad, confident morning.

What a difference 10 sand-blasting years have made to that fresh-faced young man. First there was the Bernie Ecclestone affair. On TV, Blair described himself, perhaps too memorably, as "a pretty straight sort of a guy".

This seems to be a simplification. More a millefeuille sort of a guy. Michael Cockerell calls him a complex, multi-layered personality.

Lord Wilson, a mandarin, said: "He has more ability to charm other people, and leave them walking away feeling tall when they've agreed to something they didn't mean to agree to, than anyone else I've ever met." Then there was the Ken Livingstone affair: he came trailing clouds of leftie lunacy, and was precisely what New Labour did not want in a mayor. Joanna Lumley, Richard Branson, Glenda Jackson and Mo Mowlam were approached instead.

All remembered pressing subsequent engagements. William Hague was enjoying himself hugely: "Dobson could run as his day mayor and Livingstone could run as his nightmare." Livingstone said this attempt to force the public's hand guaranteed his election.

I think it a little hard to blame Blair's new baby for his disastrous WI speech. According to his senior media adviser, Blair was tired and the speech was twaddle. As the boos subsided, the chairwoman said: "It's been a unique experience for us.

" The prime minister pointed to himself and mouthed: "And for me." The bright morning was over.