SURPRISE, Ariz. Pitchers and catchers have stretched and jogged and thrown for two days. I feel perfectly comfortable making permanent decisions.
But, just in case my keen eyesight and perception is off, let's just temper it a little bit.
Here are nine things I think I already know about the Rangers (right up front, we're just going to throw out the disclaimer if everybody is healthy because an injury could change things significantly):
1. There is really only one job open in the bullpen.
It is for a long reliever. The Rangers want Frank Francisco to make the team as a seventh-inning guy, but much of that is predicated on how close he comes to being the dominant fastball-splitter rookie of 2004.
2.
Joaquin Benoit, Rick Bauer, Scott Feldman: One of them will be traded this spring, either straight up to upgrade the bench or in a bigger deal if a bigger need arises. Benoit and Bauer are out of options. One of them might well end up being the Rangers' long man.
3. Sammy Sosa will look like he's suffering from stigmata. Rudy Jaramillo will work him until his hands blister and bleed.
There is much work to be done if Sosa is going to help this team. He can't approach it as a typical spring training. He's got to work harder and longer and be willing to take advice.
4. What will determine whether Jason Botts makes the roster is not his bat, but rather his defense. The Rangers simply feel they can't carry a hitter who does nothing else (especially if they already have a full-time DH in Sammy Sosa).
Botts is working closely with Gary Pettis. He has to become a better defender.
5.
You will see more of Mark Teixeira. Teixeira is a career .258 hitter in April and has only 13 homers for the month.
Part of that can be blamed on slow spring trainings. He was limited by a neck injury in 2005 and missed part of camp last spring to attend the World Baseball Classic. Look for Teixeira to get something more in the 80 at-bat range, rather than the 50-60 range.
If Teixeira has a strong April and May, he could put up Albert Pujols numbers
6. The backup catcher is not yet in camp. The Rangers like several things about Miguel Ojeda, but I still think there will be a veteran available at the end of spring who the Rangers will like more.
7. The clubhouse will be livelier, louder and more engaged than last year. That, I know.
What I think I know is that it may be the liveliest clubhouse the Rangers have had since the 1980s.
8. The Rangers will sign Michael Young to a long-term extension.
Actually I don't think I know this at all. It's a guess. But it seems to be the right move on several fronts.
First is the talent. Second is his role as a leader of this club. And third, it sets an example for current and future players that this team recognizes in-house talent and is willing to compensate it in order to win championships.
9. There will be at least one major change to all of these guarantees because, well, somebody won't be healthy. Don't try to fight it.
It happens every spring.
Q: Assuming Sammy Sosa fails to make the team (a big assumption) and Jason Botts doesn't perform up to expectations, do they go into the season with Frank Catalanotto at DH? Can they possibly compete with that lineup?
Do they make a trade for a big bat?
GRANT: Well, Victor Diaz could still play a factor in the DH situation, but if both Sosa and Botts are washouts (and I really think the Rangers will give at least one of the two the benefit of the doubt and let him/them start the regular season on the roster), it's possible the Rangers could dangle some of their bullpen depth for a bat.
Boston, Philadelphia and Cleveland are all teams that could really use a solid bullpen arm.
In that worst-case scenario, the Rangers might have to consider trading Akinori Otsuka for a bat.
And a word about Catalanotto: Against right-handed pitchers, there is no question he'd be an effective DH. Having him hit second against lefties and moving Michael Young into the third spot is liable to make the Rangers a more dangerous offensive team.
Kenny Lofton and Catalanotto are true table-setters. Young led the AL in batting average with runners in scoring position last season. As long as the guys ahead of him are getting on base, having Young hit third is nothing but an asset for the Rangers.
The problem would really only arise against left-handed pitching. It would be hard for me to see the Rangers trading Otsuka for a guy who would be a platoon DH. That's partly why I think that even if Sosa, Botts and Diaz all struggle this spring, at least one of them is going to get a chance to prove himself during the regular season.
Q: How much of a difference will Ron Washington's mere presence make in changing the dynamics in the clubhouse and getting the players to play looser and have more fun playing the game? Do you think a more relaxed clubhouse over the course of such a long season can help the players play up to their potential on the field?
GRANT: I certainly think the clubhouse is more relaxed and you would think, all things being equal, a relaxed clubhouse would foster a winning atmosphere more than a tight clubhouse.
If everybody is healthy, a refrain you can't utter enough during spring training, I think a relaxed clubhouse is worth a handful of wins, maybe even more if a team gets really comfortable and confident.
What's hard to answer right now is whether the clubhouse is relaxed because of the addition of Washington's personality or the subtraction of Showalter's. I think the true answer is a combination of the two.
Right now, a relaxed atmosphere is a welcome change for the players and the staff but beware: If a team doesn't win, a relaxed atmosphere gets a manager labeled as lacking in control. And then the cycle starts with bringing in a disciplinarian all over again.
I think the real hope is not that Washington's tenure in Texas is not marked by the level of comfort in the clubhouse, but by the level of open communication between manager and players.
Right now, those communication lines are wide open.
Q: Could Kameron Loe and Scott Rice be the right-left 6-7 twin towers of the Rangers' bullpen?
GRANT: Don't think so.
If Kameron Loe doesn't win a spot in the rotation, I think he'll end up in Oklahoma. If everybody is healthy, I believe there is probably only one job up for grabs in the bullpen: the role of long reliever. If healthy, Eric Gagne, Akinori Otsuka, C.
J. Wilson and Ron Mahay are all assured of jobs. Wes Littleton can only lose a job.
The Rangers would like Frank Francisco to win the other.
That leaves only the long man, and the Rangers have Rick Bauer, Joaquin Benoit, and Scott Feldman as candidates from the right-hand side and Bruce Chen and John Rheinecker from the left. I believe the club's thinking is that if Loe doesn't win a starter's job, the club still isn't ready to give up on him as a starting pitcher.
He'd probably go to Oklahoma and work in the rotation there and be an option in case of injury or the lack of performance by somebody in the rotation.
As for Rice, even if the Rangers were to keep a third lefty as a long man, Rheinecker and Chen are more likely options.
Q: Who do you think had the best offseason out of the AL West?
GRANT: Unquestionably, the Rangers. They changed the atmosphere of the clubhouse by firing Buck Showalter and hiring Ron Washington. They got young major-league ready pitching talent (Brandon McCarthy), a bat (Frank Catalanotto) that allows them to slide Michael Young into the third spot, potentially the best closer (Eric Gagne) in the majors and kept their payroll under $80 million.
McCarthy is at least temporarily an upgrade over John Danks, simply because McCarthy is ready to pitch in the big leagues. Offensively, Catalanotto is a bit better than Mark DeRosa (though DeRosa is more versatile defensively). At this stage Kenny Lofton may be a slight downgrade compared to Gary Matthews Jr.
(more power, better overall defender), but it's not a huge difference. And Gagne, if healthy, simply makes the bullpen much, much deeper.
In addition, the Rangers now have six picks in the first 80 of the amateur draft.
They have the ability to completely restock their farm system with a single draft.
I don't think Anaheim's offseason was bad mostly because the Angels didn't give up any of their young arms. But they are becoming an increasingly brittle team that must keep its fingers crossed on health.
There is no question Oakland got at least a little worse with the departure of Barry Zito. The A's replaced Frank Thomas with Mike Piazza. Don't think Piazza will duplicate Thomas' 2006 season.
Seattle signed a bunch of middle-aged, middle-of-the-road veterans that I doubt allows the Mariners to compete.
I look at it this way: Anaheim, if healthy, is the team to beat (but health is a big question). The Rangers have at least caught Oakland.
Seattle remains behind the rest of the division.
Q: Have you spoken with Joaquin Arias or Gary Pettis about Arias' potential move to the outfield.
GRANT: I talked to Arias briefly last month about adding center field to his resume.
Let's put it this way: I think he was more excited about the possibility of accelerating his path to the majors than he was about playing center.
That said, Arias is an exceptional athlete. If Alfonso Soriano can move to the outfield, there is no reason Arias shouldn't be able to do the same thing.
But in addition to learning the outfield, Arias must also improve his plate discipline. His walk totals are awful. Because he's got to learn the outfield and make a significant offensive adjustment, I don't think he begins the season in the majors.
The Rangers will need their backup center fielder to play about 40 games and potentially fill in occasionally in the leadoff spot. I can't see Arias being in position to help in those roles in five weeks.
Q: There are reports that Alex Rodriguez is thinking about free agency.
Is Rangers management secretly hoping A-Rod will opt out of the remainder of his contract after this season to become a free agent? How much money would that save over the next three years? How much is still owed to him in deferred payments?
Will Tom Hicks finally be let off the hook for that fiasco?
GRANT: I do not think the Rangers secretly wish that A-rod will opt out of his contract. Rather I think it's all out in the open.
Should Rodriguez decide to opt out, the Rangers and Yankees will both be clear winners. The Rangers will save about $6 million per year from 2008-10, which was supposed to go to the Yankees. The Yankees will get rid of a player whose statistics seem to be a lot greater than his actual contribution.
Q: Nelson Cruz obviously was the key to that huge trade, as the Rangers had no intention of keeping Carlos Lee. And I can understand that. Lee's stats in the second half of a season were not great, historically.
How good is Cruz? Potential Hall of Famer? Or another Oddibe McDowell?
GRANT: I don't know that I'd say Cruz was the key to the trade. The Rangers acquired Lee because they thought they still had a chance to win the AL West. They wanted Cruz because they had grown frustrated with Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix.
Cruz can play all three outfield positions and has tremendous power, but he hadn't been able to break into the everyday lineup of a Milwaukee team that had run-scoring issues. Cruz must be able to hit the breaking ball. And he must show that he can do it soon because he's not crazy young anymore, at least in terms of prospects.
He will turn 27 on July 1. For a point of reference, Jason Botts, who is going to have to fight to win a spot on the roster, won't turn 27 until later that month.
I'd go so far as to say the only thing that separates Cruz from being in Botts' shoes is that he is a good defensive outfielder.
Botts is a more patient hitter and also a switch-hitter. Botts, however, is still a sub-par defender.
Q: Although Akinori Otsuka was a San Diego setup man obtained to do the same job for the Rangers, he was forced into the closer's role and did a fantastic job.
Why get Eric Gagne as a new closer and move Aki back to the eighth inning? Why not find another setup reliever, especially since Gagne's physical condition is a question mark? And, although he's willing to accept the role, Aki doesn't seem thrilled with the move.
Doesn't the old adage, If it ain't broke, don't fix it, apply to Aki?
John Raymond, Carrollton
GRANT: John, some excellent points in theory, but theory and reality often differ. Though Otsuka did nothing to suggest he couldn't close games, here is why the Gagne move makes sense:
Because Otsuka closed last year is exactly why the Rangers could afford to take a gamble on Gagne.
A team that needed a closer would be taking a huge risk on Gagne because of the questions about his health. If Gagne isn't healthy, the Rangers still have a solid closer and a deep bullpen. If Gagne is healthy, the Rangers might just have the best bullpen in baseball.
They could theoretically have Wes Littleton and Frank Francisco to split up the seventh-inning job, keeping both guys fresh. Ditto the left-hand setup guy with C.J.
Wilson and Ron Mahay. Otsuka would have the eighth, but if he needed a day off, a guy like Francisco or Littleton could occasionally spell him. Same in the ninth if Gagne needed a day off; it wouldn't be much of a stretch to have Otsuka close out the game with Francisco or Littleton preceding him.
Now, there are still some caveats: Francisco must show he's healthy and effective; Littleton must come close to duplicating his amazing rookie season; Otsuka must again be reliable; and Gagne must be healthy.
There are a lot of ifs in there, but the stage is set for the Rangers to have a championship caliber bullpen. They had a nice bullpen last year; this could be a championship group.
There is a difference.
Q: What exactly do the players do prior to the spring training games? What does their workout routine look like?
And what does their schedule consist of? How early do they start every day? How late do they stay?
Emily Hill, Roswell, N.M.
GRANT: Training is an important part of the spring training regimen.
There is more work on drills involving fundamentals and specific plays. Pitchers go through drills on fielding before they start throwing sessions to build up their arm strength. Position players do specific defensive drills such as handling bunt plays, making relays and cutoffs and conducting rundowns.
The extra time that players are on the field in spring training they are out there for up to three hours in the spring as opposed to about one hour during the regular season is all built around repetition of fundamental tenets of winning baseball. There are far more team-oriented drills than anything that takes place during the regular season.
The Rangers are planning to hit the field this spring at about 9:30 every day when they are at home.
They will stretch for about 30 minutes, go into about an hour of fundamental work and then another hour of batting/pitching practice.
Once exhibitions start, the workouts are trimmed just a bit. Maybe closer to 20 minutes for stretching, 45 minutes for team drills and 45 minutes for batting practice.
They are off the field about noon, then take a break for lunch before the 1 p.m. (local time) start of an exhibition.
For road games, the Rangers leave at different times depending on how far they are traveling. It also limits the amount of workout time once they arrive at the opponent's stadium
Q: OK, tell the truth. Which is a better place to enjoy spring training: Florida or Arizona?
John Shawe Williams, Lovelady, Texas
GRANT: Not a fair question, John. You are asking a guy who wears Hawaiian shirts, enjoys an occasional frozen fruity drink and likes both the visual and the sound of water lapping against a beach. You think Jimmy Buffett would have written Margaritaville in the desert?
It would be called, Bring me some water.
For fans, though, Arizona is hard to beat. The facilities are newer.
They are closer together. And at least once this spring, fans can come to Surprise and watch four teams in one day in one stadium. On March 9, the Rangers host the Cubs in the afternoon and the Royals play the Angels in the evening.
In Florida, because camps are located farther apart, if you plan to go to a game, that really is your only activity for the day. In Phoenix, you can choose a game of interest, play golf or hike for a bit in the morning, and then drive (albeit through horrendous traffic) to a game.
Players: They can go either way.
They want to work out and play golf. In Florida, they run into more rain; in Arizona, more windy, colder weather.
So, how's that for covering all the bases: Me: Florida; Fans: Arizona; Players: Either one.
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